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Bears ruled dalal street in the week gone by but this week could well belong to the bulls, suggest technical experts tracking the market. The nifty50 which closed with a loss of 2.2 percent for the week ended march 9 but the pullback rally could take nifty towards 10300-10400 levels, they say.

A large part of the decline was led by banking stocks as more bad news flowed into the sector. The banking regulator penalised four banks including state bank of india (SBI) and airtel payments bank for breaching RBI norms.

On the global front, the market sentiment remained weak amid weak global cues on the prospects of trade wars initiated by the US president donald trump which led to weakness in markets across the globe.

After a sharp correction seen throughout in the month of march, analysts feel that the nifty could see a bounce back which could take the nifty towards 10300-10400 levels.


But, that would just be a ‘dead cat bounce’ as the pain is not yet over.Bounce back

This was clearly an action-packed week for our traders as we once again saw some trended move after a consolidation of nearly three weeks. This was clearly on cards; but as we all know, timing such moves is not as easy as it looks in the hindsight.

“for a positional trader, it is always a prudent strategy to remain with the trend when it is in the early stages. The near-term trend turned lower after confirming the ‘bearish engulfing’ pattern at the end of the ‘budget week’,” sameet chavan- chief analyst, technicals and derivatives at angel broking

Addition to this, the ‘RSI-smoothened’ slipped below the 70 mark and now we can see prices closing below the ’20-EMA’ on the weekly time frame for the first time after january 2017.

“we would continue with our ‘sell on rise’ approach and would expect the index to the first slide towards 10033 and then eventually to enter sub-10000 levels quite soon.Daily chart however, before this, 10140 – 10350 has become a no-trade zone for the market. If any negativity has to resume, it would only happen after violating the 10140 mark,” said chavan.

He further added that the ideal scenario to initiate short position would be either below this crucial junction or after seeing a decent relief rally towards the higher end i.E. 10350 – 10400. As of now, we do not expect the nifty to surpass these hurdles in coming days.

Traders should remain light and avoid taking undue risks in such kind of uncertainty and in case of some relief rally within the consolidation range, traders should focus on individual stocks.

We are not trying to make any kind of bottom fishing as the entire PSU banking basket is like a falling knife for the last three weeks. But, the way this stock behaved in the last three sessions, we tempted to take a trading punt with a small stop loss.Daily chart

Since, the risk is very small i.E. Hardly a couple of percent from current prices, it calls for a good contra-buy for the coming week. In case of a bounce back, we may see a good relief move towards rs.142 levels.

The stock prices consolidated for nearly a month after witnessing a sharp correction from the all-time high of 4600. On friday, there were some hints that the stock could break below this consolidation range and therefore, confirms a resumption of a downward move.

The momentum oscillators in the weekly time frame are sloping southwards, which adds conviction to the cautious stance on the counter. We advise going short for a target of rs.3896 for the coming week, and one should place a strict stop loss below rs.4174.

Looking at friday’s sharp fall, it is no brainer going short on this counter. But, we have been quite vocal on the probable correction before the budget time and have been advising traders exiting longs around their recent highs.Daily chart

In fact, ‘tata steel’ was the one stock that we advised going contra-short around its peak. This was mainly after prices entering its major resistance zone of 161% reciprocal retracement on the monthly chart. It is good to see the real impact of this important ‘golden ratio’.

Now, finally, prices confirmed its bearish trend after breaking down below recent ‘make or break’ level of 632. We continue to expect this stock sliding towards 570 – 550 in days to come.

Since the stock has already fallen a lot, it’s advisable to wait for some bounce back towards 620 – 625, which will make the risk-reward ration a bit favorable. One can look to go short around it with a strict stop loss of rs.647.

The stock has corrected sharply in the last few days and has reached to its strong support zone of rs300-305. The stock made a ‘double bottom’ formation and has started rebounding from the mentioned support zone to form a couple of ‘hammer’ candles on the daily time frame charts.Bounce back

This was followed by a positive momentum in the last couple of trading sessions, which indicates a possibility of a reversal in the short term trend.

Also, the momentum oscillator ‘RSI’ is showing positive divergence on the daily chart and is showing strength in the counter. Looking at the current chart structure, we are expecting a bounce in the stock towards rs350 levels in coming couple of weeks.

The stock is moving in a corrective phase from the last ten weeks and has also corrected by more than 25 percent in the same time. Currently, we are witnessing a formation of a bullish harmonic pattern called ‘bullish bat’ on the daily charts.

The potential reversal zone (PRZ) is placed in the zone of rs387 – 393. The ‘RSI’ oscillator is showing a series of positive divergence on the daily chart, indicating a possibility of a short-term reversal.

Looking at the above technical evidence, traders are advised to buy the stock on declines for the target of rs435 – 445 with a stop-loss below 379.Stop loss

From the last two sessions, the stock is showing strength and is now coming out of a short-term consolidation phase. Also, the ‘RSI’ on the weekly chart is showing a positive reversal and thus indicating resumption in the uptrend in the coming weeks.

Considering current chart structure, we advised traders to buy the stock with the stop-loss of 1960, and on the upside, we may see targets ranging from 2300 – 2350 levels.

After trading in a downward momentum for a series of consecutive session, vakrangee took a strong bottom base at 154 levels and continued to rebound in a positive trajectory.

On the weekly price chart, the scrip made a strong bullish candlestick pattern coupled with bullish crossover on MACD made during last week’s trade.

Further, the RSI level at 58 up from earlier level sign positive cues. The scrip is currently holding support at 179 and resistance level is seen at 225.Daily chart we have a BUY recommendation on the counter which is currently trading at rs. 195.75

Geojit financial witnessed a robust momentum towards the weekend session despite trading in a sideways direction for a week, as it made a positive breakout from its 20-days EMA level.

Further, bollinger bandwidth suggests a positive breakout from its upper band placed at 117 which is likely to build the uptrend trajectory. After closing on about 6 percent gain on an intraday basis, the scrip made a solid bullish candlestick pattern on its daily price chart.

With price trading above crucial levels, the scrip is now facing a resistance at 118 levels and support level at 89. We have a BUY recommendation for geojit financial which is currently trading at rs100.95

The stock closed at rs878.70 on 9th march 2018. It made a 52-week low at rs680 on 10th march 2017 and a 52-week high of rs. 971.70 on 26th december 2018.Daily chart

The 200-days exponential moving average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at rs. 831.87. The stock is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts which is bullish in nature.

From the past few weeks, it was consolidating in the range of 840-910 levels and formed a “triangle” pattern. Although, the stock has not given the pattern breakout bias is looking positive for the stock.

The stock closed at rs. 1002.35 on 09th march 2018. It made a 52-week low at rs. 641.17 on 24th may 2017 and a 52-week high of rs. 1123.25 on 24th january 2018. The 200-days exponential moving average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at rs. 913.83

The stock is forming an “inverted head and shoulder” pattern on the weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. It took more than 2 years to form the pattern so the potential of rise is quite strong.

Bounce back

Apart from this, technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 980-990 levels for the upside target of 1100-1120 levels with a stop loss below 930. Disclaimer: the views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.Com are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.Com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.